AGP Executive Report

Ebola & Public Health: Kenya confirmed its first-ever Ebola death after a Bundibugyo case imported from DR Congo via Kampala, prompting WHO to urge no travel or trade bans and to intensify screening and contact tracing. Capital Markets: CMA Uganda approved Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s share marketing locally ahead of the Oct 13 subscription deadline, but restricted participation to institutional and high-net-worth investors. Energy & Security: Uganda’s AG says the 2021 digital number plates deal is null and void, while Defence Minister Kiwanuka says NEC was never involved in ITMS—fueling a fresh parliamentary push on accountability. Education & Refugees: Over 200,000 refugee learners in host districts face unpaid-teacher fallout as donor funding cuts bite, raising risks for PLE/UCE/UACE readiness. TVET Integrity: UVTAB gazetted new TVET assessment rules with tough penalties for malpractice, including cancellation of results and suspension. Trade & Jobs: Museveni urged manufacturers to stop exporting raw materials and scale value addition at the Uganda International Trade Fair, targeting agro-processing and industrial inputs. Regional Commerce: Ugandan traders in South Sudan are panicking after notices reportedly restricting foreigners from retail business in Juba. Climate Governance: Deputy Speaker Tayebwa told MPs to move from climate speeches to preventive action through legislation and budgeting. Commonwealth Diplomacy: Commonwealth SG Shirley Botchwey begins a 3-day visit to Uganda ahead of CHOGM, focusing on resilience and governance support. Business & Society: Police arrested a man running an online tourism scam targeting foreign visitors with fake car hire and safari/gorilla permit offers.

Ebola Watch (Regional Health): Kenya confirmed its first Ebola case, a Kenyan who died in Nairobi after travelling from the DRC via Kampala, with WHO backing contact tracing, surveillance and screening across Kenya, Uganda and the DRC. Public Health & Education (Refugee Impact): Uganda says over 200,000 refugee pupils risk missing the rest of the school year as donor support shrinks, prompting an emergency meeting to protect exam candidates. Finance & Markets (Banking): Housing Finance Bank was reappointed by Bank of Uganda as a Primary Dealer Market Maker for 2026–2029, strengthening liquidity in government securities trading. Governance & Accountability (Anti-Corruption): Uganda’s Consul General in Mombasa, Herbert Kiguli, was remanded to Luzira over alleged Shs494m loss linked to 2020 requisitions. Housing (Policy): Government is seeking partnerships with banks to create affordable housing finance for low-income earners, targeting Uganda’s 2.4m-unit housing deficit. Digital Payments (Competition): Airtel Money plans a virtual card in Uganda’s region (already in Uganda) to challenge M-Pesa GlobalPay on international online payments. Energy & Business (Power Supply): UEDCL invested Shs240m in Butebo to extend distribution and install transformers for schools and a mini-industrial park. Tourism Fraud (Consumer Protection): Police arrested a suspect behind an online fake tour and car-hire scheme targeting foreign tourists with alleged gorilla permit and safari scams.

Anti-Corruption: Uganda’s Anti-Corruption Court remanded Mombasa-based Consul General Herbert Kiguli to Luzira Prison over alleged abuse of office and a Sh494m loss to government, with a bail hearing set for Oct 7. Education Regulation: The Ministry of Education ordered international schools offering both foreign and Ugandan curricula to take separate licensing paths or meet full requirements for each, aiming to close gaps that allowed “fake” international branding. Health Capacity: Uganda Cancer Institute said radiotherapy machines have risen to eight operational units, but patient surges and staffing limits still cause delays. Pensions & Savings: NSSF credited members with a record 22.53% return for FY ending June 2026, boosting retirement balances while raising questions about how much of the gain is repeatable. Banking & Finance: Stanbic highlighted Kalangala oil palm success stories as it unveiled a revamped branch, underscoring how long-term finance and partnerships can scale farm livelihoods. Infrastructure & Skills: Government-aided vocational training is still held back by outdated equipment, limiting hands-on skills for modern industry needs. Energy & Youth: TotalEnergies pushed youth engagement in Uganda’s energy sector, linking careers and skills to the region’s oil, gas and transition agenda. Digital Governance: Parliament’s probe into the digital number plate system led to arrests of officials after inconsistent explanations on the controversial Shs714.3m price.

Mining Finance & Value Addition: Equity Bank says it will deepen financial inclusion for artisanal and small-scale miners, backing safer, more productive practices as Uganda hosts the Mineral Wealth Conference at Speke Resort Munyonyo. Power Costs & Access: UEDCL set new electricity end-user tariffs for Oct–Dec, with higher rates for heavy users, while PM Nabbanja commissioned projects extending power to schools and a rural industrial park in Butebo. Currency Watch: The shilling hit a record low, with banks quoting above 4,000 per dollar as seasonal demand and dollar buying pressure the market. Education Oversight: Government tightened rules on “dual curriculum” international schools, ordering separate licensing or full compliance for each pathway. Anti-Corruption & Accountability: IG remanded Uganda’s consul general in Mombasa, Amb. Herbert Kiguli, over alleged Shs494m loss linked to MAAIF/Bukalasa funds, and also warned against victimising whistleblowers after recovering Shs41.9b. Digital Number Plates Probe: Parliament’s inquiry led to arrests over disputed pricing and false testimony in the Shs714,300 per plate controversy. Insurance Stability: Old Mutual reassured customers that selling some Kampala properties won’t affect policyholder obligations. Agriculture Compliance: Coffee farmers in Greater Masaka complain about slow registration under EU deforestation rules, warning they may miss market access. School Fees Relief: Furaha Finserve says it has helped keep 100,000 children in school through short-term school-fee financing.

Power & Industry: Dei BioPharma’s Kamuli starch factory is set for full-scale operations after Uganda secured a high-voltage power connection, a boost for local manufacturing and jobs. Energy & Oil: Uganda’s “Pearl Sweet” crude is moving from promise to pipeline reality, with first commercial oil now expected in early 2027, while regional debates continue on how many refineries East Africa needs. Tax Administration: URA says 2.1m taxpayers have had their TINs mapped to NINs as Uganda transitions to NIN as the main tax identifier—aimed at cutting duplication, forgeries and revenue leakage. Trade & Markets: Uganda has joined the Swiss Coffee Trade Association to deepen access to global coffee traders and investors. Regional Business Climate: A CEO forum in Nairobi warned that East African firms still treat markets country-by-country, despite a 300m+ regional consumer base—pushing integration as a business strategy. Transport & Aviation: Jambo Jet returns to Entebbe to scale regional connectivity after its Covid-era pause. Legal/City Costs: KCCA has been ordered to pay about Shs124m after a street vendor drowned in 2017 during enforcement operations. Workforce & Welfare: UNATU renews calls for fairer teacher pay, faster promotions, better materials and support for teachers’ SACCOs.

East Africa Refinery Politics: President Museveni backed Aliko Dangote’s mega refinery in Kenya but said Uganda won’t commit money until the status of Tanzania’s proposed Tanga refinery is clear, keeping regional refining plans in focus. Tax Administration Upgrade: URA says 2.1 million taxpayers have had their TINs mapped to NINs as Uganda transitions to NIN as the main tax identifier, aiming to cut duplication and revenue leakage. Agribusiness & Jobs: A high-tech cassava processing plant in Kamuli is moving toward full-scale production after power works, targeting pharmaceutical-grade starch and industrial sugars. Rural Finance Gap: Despite over Shs1.5trn disbursed under the Agricultural Credit Facility since 2009, officials say rural farmers still struggle to access it, with awareness and distribution uneven. Housing Affordability: Uganda Law Society urges a stronger housing policy to tackle high costs of building materials and land-related bottlenecks that leave many locked out of decent homes. Education Fees Crackdown: The education minister warns schools against illegal UPE/USE fee charges that push children out, stressing education is a right. Pensions & Patient Capital: A pensions conference highlights how retirement savings could fund long-term investment as Uganda targets Tenfold growth. Trade Signals: Kenya’s exports to the US overtook Uganda’s in early 2026 after AGOA restoration, showing how market access shifts can quickly reshape regional business.

NSSF Investment Strategy: Uganda’s National Social Security Fund says it skipped the Kenya Pipeline Company IPO after judging it “overvalued,” even as it boosts returns for savers and shifts away from heavy reliance on government paper. Court Battle for Banking Losses: Uganda’s richest family, the Ruparelias, is set to sue Rabobank-linked parties in a London court over the 2017 Crane Bank fallout, seeking about $225m in damages. Tax Authority Shake-up: Emmanuel Katongole has resigned as Uganda Revenue Authority board chair after six months, as URA faces pressure over internal disciplinary matters and the government pushes for higher revenue. Broadband Push: Canalbox says it is targeting Uganda’s fixed broadband market beyond mobile data, aiming to grow households and business customers after investing heavily in infrastructure. Sports Funding Scrutiny: Unpaid dues are again exposing how sports funding is managed, with calls for more transparent, timely payment systems for athletes. Industrial Expansion: Fine Spinners Uganda plans to expand across DRC, Zambia and Ethiopia after a $5m machinery investment, targeting up to 40% more production capacity. Health Access Gap: Over 21,000 Buikwe residents in Kiyindi lack a government health facility, forcing costly travel or self-medication. Youth Protection Campaign: Brave Girls 2026 launches in Yumbe to curb teenage pregnancy, early marriage and school dropout through school and community outreach. Regional Trade Talks: Nigeria and other African partners are pushing for trade to sit at the centre of Pan-African diplomacy, focusing on removing barriers and expanding trade finance.

Regional Banking Expansion: NCBA Group says it is targeting Ethiopia and the DRC as its next frontier markets, prioritising acquisitions over “greenfield” builds after the Nedbank deal that values the transaction at about $850m (Sh110b). Health & Public Services: Uganda’s health worker recruitment “red list” exit draws mixed reactions as WHO says some cadres are now produced in excess, while shortages persist in others; meanwhile, Buikwe’s Kiyindi residents (over 21,000) still lack a public health facility and are forced into costly travel or self-medication. Tax Administration: URA Board chair Emmanuel Katongole resigns after six months, as the tax body faces pressure to boost domestic revenue. Energy & Jobs Watch: East Africa’s refinery race stays in focus after Kenya’s push for more refining capacity around the planned Dangote Lamu project, with leaders framing it as a trade and energy-security boost. Business Finance for Schools: NCBA Bank Uganda partners with MAC East Africa to offer up to 100% school bus financing for up to 72 months, easing upfront costs for learner transport. Governance & Compliance: Government begins seismic vulnerability screening of about 5,000 Kampala buildings, with a wider Greater Kampala rollout planned. Legal & Consumer Costs: Diesel price inflation is rising fast, feeding into transport and food costs across Uganda. Women’s Rights Policy: Women MPs and activists renew calls for government backing of the long-pending Marriage and Divorce Bill as an executive bill.

Earthquake readiness: Uganda’s National Building Review Board has screened about 5,000 buildings in Kampala for seismic vulnerability, with the Rapid Visual Screening exercise set to expand to Kira, Wakiso, Entebbe, parts of Greater Kampala, Mukono and Mpigi. Climate & jobs: Equity Bank launched its Equity Green Schools Programme, targeting 200,000 trees planted and nurtured in schools by 2027, starting with 3,000 trees at Nakanyonyi SS in Mukono. Trade & manufacturing: Uganda Manufacturers Association opened its 32nd International Trade Fair, bringing exhibitors from 31 countries and pushing deep discounts on locally made products. Mobile money competition: Airtel Money says it will fight for more Kenya market share via lower fees and incentives as it prepares an IPO in London, intensifying the price war with M-Pesa. Power reliability: UEDCL unveiled a major plan to cut blackouts for 80,000+ Greater Kampala customers, including transformer upgrades and stakeholder engagement. Health workforce crunch: The Public Service ministry ordered MoH to submit essential staffing lists annually to unlock wage allocations, as public facilities face severe radiographer shortages. Regional energy investment: Afreximbank backed Dangote’s $16bn refinery push in Kenya, with crude expected from African producers including Uganda. Legal & consumer impact: Court ordered KCCA to pay damages over the 2017 Nakivubo channel drowning of a street vendor, citing drain maintenance failures.

Kampala Court Ruling: The High Court ordered KCCA to pay about Shs124.9m to the family of street vendor Olive Basemera, who drowned in the Nakivubo channel in 2017, though damages were cut by 30% for contributory negligence. Security & Trade: UPDF-replica robbers intercepted a Kombucha sales team on the Iganga-Kaliro road and stole about Shs5.51m, raising fresh concerns over highway crime and supply-chain safety. Regional Finance: East African Development Bank appointed Anne Juuko as its new Director General from Oct 2, alongside governance reforms aimed at strengthening lending and oversight. Health & Regulation: NDA stepped up monitoring after seizure of illegal veterinary vaccines and medicines worth about Shs100m at Busia and in western districts, shutting down 79 outlets. Power Reliability: UEDCL launched a nationwide engagement drive and announced transformer upgrades and line splitting to cut blackouts for over 80,000 Greater Kampala customers. Tourism Targets: Finance Minister Musasizi said Uganda aims to grow tourism receipts to US$5bn by 2030, up from about US$1.62bn last year. Public Services: Government urged timely submission of essential staff lists to speed recruitment in health, as Uganda faces a shortage of secondary school teachers and headship gaps. Conservation & Jobs: UWA and WCS signed a 10-year deal to co-manage Queen Elizabeth’s Ishasha sector for tree-climbing lions, with tourism enterprise development and stronger biodiversity management.

East Africa Refinery Push: Aliko Dangote has dismissed Kenya land-protest claims, saying the $16bn Lamu refinery will be ready by 2030 and offered East African governments a combined 30% stake, with Rwanda and Ethiopia signaling interest—while Kenya’s President William Ruto downplayed “rivalry,” saying the region needs multiple facilities and could even buy fuel from Uganda. Uganda Energy & Industry: Exim Bank Uganda backed Yangtze Industry’s expansion with financing for a new glue plant at the Sino-Uganda Mbale Industrial Park, as Uganda targets deeper local manufacturing. Tourism & Digital Growth: Uganda is leaning into AI and digital tools to boost tourism competitiveness, with stakeholders meeting to review how tech can improve marketing, visitor experience and data-driven decisions. Kampala Markets: KCCA faces pressure to compensate traders who built stalls on KCCA land as Kampala’s Lord Mayor Balimwezo urged government to budget for compensation before takeovers. Public Finance Oversight: COSASE suspended proceedings after Finance Minister Henry Musasizi failed to appear over a Shs140bn Basajjabalaba guarantee, with MPs pushing for censure. Safety & Transport: Jambojet resumed daily Nairobi–Entebbe flights, while a security guard drowned in a Naguru swimming pool while recording himself.

Parliament & Finance: MPs suspended COSASE proceedings after Finance Minister Henry Musasizi failed to appear over a Shs140bn Basajjabalaba guarantee, with MPs pushing for censure and police sent to locate him. Energy & Industry: Kenya broke ground on Dangote’s $16bn Lamu refinery (700,000 bpd), with regional leaders backing it as a fuel-security and value-add boost for East Africa. Regional Trade: South Sudan and Uganda signed a one-stop border crossing deal to cut time and costs for cross-border business, including support for women traders. Tourism & Innovation: Uganda is turning to AI and digital tools to redesign tourism, improve marketing and visitor experiences, and strengthen data-driven decisions. Health & HIV: New UPHIA 2025 findings show Uganda’s adult HIV prevalence at 5.9%, with attention on access to prevention and treatment. Banking & Investment: Airtel Uganda paid NSSF UGX 42.6bn dividend for 2025, while NSSF also acquired a 30% stake in Kampala Marriott Hotel for about UGX 180bn. Security & Crime: UPDF denied allegations against Lt Mabonga, and police are investigating a night raid on NWSC Mityana offices where computers were stolen.

Dangote Refinery Deal in Focus: East Africa’s biggest industrial push took a major step forward as Aliko Dangote and leaders including President Museveni and Kenya’s Ruto broke ground on the $16bn, 700,000-bpd Dangote East Africa Petroleum Refinery in Lamu, with completion targeted in 40 months and plans for an integrated industrial complex. Fuel Supply Corridor: Kenya officially activated the route for Rwanda’s first 40,000-tonne refined fuel shipment via Mombasa under a new energy cooperation framework, expected to scale up volumes. Court and Community Tensions: The Lamu refinery’s construction faces disruption risk after residents filed a land dispute petition, while Dangote blamed protests on local marketers and international oil players. Uganda’s Position on Regional Refineries: Museveni backed the Lamu project but said Uganda will not invest until it clarifies its own small refinery plans. NSSF Gets Airtel Dividend: Airtel Uganda paid NSSF UGX 42.6bn dividend, reinforcing the role of long-term savings in productive investments. Mining and Tourism Push: Uganda renewed efforts to boost mining value addition and also urged Eastern Uganda’s tourism players to tap patient capital for jobs and local growth.

East Africa Energy Push: Aliko Dangote has broken ground on a $16bn Lamu refinery in Kenya, targeting 700,000 barrels per day by 2030 and promising major regional fuel self-sufficiency; Uganda’s President Museveni backed the project but said Uganda will not invest in it yet, insisting Uganda will proceed with its own “small refinery” plans in Hoima. Local Business & Finance: MTN MoMo is offering a 20% discount on back-to-school shopping, while MoMo School Pay is helping schools cut cash-handling hassles and improve fee tracking. Digital Transport Revenue: Parliament says Uganda’s digital number plate backlog has been cleared and fitment times reduced, even as a Russian supplier blames global shipping disruptions for earlier delays. Education Funding Reform: Uganda’s Ministry of Education is set to scrap the per-pupil capitation model and move to cost-based funding to better match real school running costs. Trade & Investment Links: Uganda and Japan discussed scaling ICT cooperation under UJ Connect, with more AI integration and stronger links between Ugandan talent and Japanese firms. Regional Connectivity: Kenya plans to extend the SGR from Voi to the Tanzania border, boosting cross-border freight and passenger movement. Security & Governance: EU states plan “return hubs” outside the bloc for rejected migrants starting in 2027, with legal and human-rights concerns still in the spotlight.

East Africa Energy Push: Aliko Dangote and Kenya’s President William Ruto will break ground on Wednesday for a $16bn Lamu refinery, targeting lower fuel costs and reduced import bills across the region, with Dangote offering governments a combined 30% stake. Uganda Roads Accountability: A government audit flags poor maintenance of 228 district roadworks across 176 local governments, citing incomplete and unsatisfactory works and equipment gaps tied to accountability of Shs176bn. Medical Tourism Reality Check: Research highlights Uganda’s health-service exports rising to $26.8m in 2024, but warns of a “confidence gap” when patients abroad end up seeing Ugandan specialists they could have accessed at home. Transport & Digital Plates: Uganda’s boda-boda operators ask Parliament to review the digital number plate rollout over high costs, delays, and enforcement concerns that are grounding motorcycles and hurting daily-income earners. Banking Leadership: Housing Finance Bank appoints Moses Mande Oroto to lead business and institutional banking, aiming to deepen support for enterprises. Urban Waste Pressure: City leaders warn solid waste and drainage are becoming a “time bomb,” with budgets lagging behind rapid urban growth. Cross-border Payments Innovation: Verto and Visa launch a multi-currency corporate card for African businesses to cut FX costs and settle in shillings. Health Policy: Uganda’s measles-rubella campaign begins October 1, aiming to reach 7.47m children as routine immunisation gaps from past disruptions resurface.

Digital Payments & Regulation: Uganda’s mobile money and digital finance ecosystem is in the spotlight as Kenya’s National Payments Systems Bill 2026 would let providers invest customer deposits in government securities and interest-bearing accounts, with debate growing over whether wallet holders should share the returns. SME Growth & Banking: dfcu’s Kyusa Level SME Customer Dine-Out in Kampala focused on cash-flow management, business resilience and financing priorities as small firms face rising costs and tighter liquidity. Cross-Border Health Trade: Egypt and Uganda discussed expanding pharmaceutical and vaccine exports, including possible joint manufacturing and renewed hepatitis C cooperation. Digital Number Plates Oversight: Parliament’s Infrastructure Committee has opened a review of Uganda’s digital number plate rollout, citing delays, capacity questions, tax revenue losses and concerns over a single contractor’s role. Energy & Regional Power: Uganda and South Sudan moved closer to electricity integration after a technical launch of the SUPIP cross-border interconnector backed by the African Development Bank. Industrial Land Use: Soroti City officials raised alarm over idle land in the Soroti Industrial and Business Park, where most plots remain undeveloped years after allocation. Corruption & Finance Risks: A report highlights how professionals like lawyers, accountants and real-estate agents can enable illicit financial flows, raising questions on who monitors them. Business & Investment Diplomacy: Prime Minister Nabbanja met UK investor Lord Krish Raval to explore investment opportunities, directing the Uganda Investment Authority to support and protect investors.