AGP Executive Report

Shilling Pressure: Bank of Uganda Governor Michael Atingi-Ego says the shilling’s weakness reflects a widening current-account deficit and softer investment flows, not the sovereignty law. The central bank has raised its policy rate to 12% to curb inflation and currency pressure, while traders warn rising dollar costs are squeezing businesses. Oil Investment: Uganda’s planned $4 billion Hoima refinery is targeting a February 2027 investment decision, but key agreements remain unfinished and engineering is about 80% complete. Healthcare Investment: Mauritius-based C-Care has acquired Kampala’s Roswell Hospital, expanding its Ugandan network to six hospitals and 17 clinics. Public Finance: Government released Shs21.82 trillion for the second quarter, with Shs10.75 trillion set aside for debt payments. Kampala is also seeking a new IMF programme to unlock cheaper financing and bolster investor confidence. Regional Trade: Ugandan traders say border delays and costly clearance threaten exports to South Sudan, a key market where annual trade is about $700 million.

Currency and Finance: The shilling’s weakness has prompted the Bank of Uganda to raise its benchmark rate to 12%. Uganda is also seeking concessional IMF financing under a new programme to strengthen confidence and improve its credit rating. Public Investment: Government released Shs21.82 trillion for the second quarter, while the World Bank says bureaucracy and procurement delays are slowing projects and discussed support for an economic zone along the SGR corridor. Trade and SMEs: Uganda and South Sudan are pushing to deepen trade and ease border barriers, with Uganda targeting $700 million in annual exports. Absa is offering Shs66 million in prizes to encourage SME card payments. Coffee and Savings: Uganda’s coffee roasters are seeking up to Shs5 billion to grow local processing and exports. Wazalendo SACCO, with about Shs1.4 trillion in assets, has been ranked among Africa’s top 20 by assets and membership.

Public Spending: Government released Shs21.82 trillion for the second quarter of FY2026/27, about 26% of the annual budget. Allocations include Shs224.5 billion for agro-industrialisation and Shs372.9 billion for science, technology and digitalisation. Currency & Rates: The shilling weakened to Shs4,045–4,055 per US dollar as corporate and offshore demand outstripped supply, despite Bank of Uganda dollar sales. The central bank’s rate hike to 12% is also tightening liquidity. Business Finance: I&M Bank has expanded asset financing for pickups and tractors, with monthly payments starting at Shs4.6 million and Shs2.3 million respectively. Trade: Uganda and South Africa are reviewing trade, investment and security ties, while Kampala is seeking to grow annual exports to South Sudan, now valued at $700 million. Extractives: Uganda reiterated its commitment to transparent management of oil, gas and mineral revenues, as the latest sector report recorded Shs261.9 million in company social spending for 2023/24.

Monetary Policy: The Bank of Uganda raised its benchmark rate to 12% to curb shilling depreciation and inflation. Economists warn higher borrowing costs could hurt businesses and slow growth. Regional Trade: Uganda wants to grow its annual exports to South Sudan beyond $700 million by easing border procedures, improving road security and advancing a one-stop border post. Business Investment: NSSF paid $50 million for a 30% stake in Kampala Marriott, valuing the hotel at about $167 million and extending the pension fund’s investment into hospitality. Local Manufacturing: Nile Breweries says it sources more than 98% of its raw materials locally, spending over Shs156 billion a year and supporting about 25,000 farmers. Green Finance: Equity Bank Uganda unveiled Shs37.6 billion in climate loans as it promotes investment in sustainable businesses. Charcoal Trade: Parliament suspended enforcement of the northern Uganda charcoal ban pending a government review; traders say Shs2.4 billion in stock is stranded at the South Sudan border.

Monetary Policy: Bank of Uganda raised its benchmark rate from 9.75% to 12% to counter shilling weakness, fuel costs and inflation. The move helped the shilling rebound 4% to Shs3,984 per dollar, but the central bank cut its 2026/27 growth forecast to 6–6.5%, while higher rates risk making borrowing costlier for firms and households. Regional Trade: Uganda and Kenya agreed to remove remaining barriers to goods moving across their border, while Uganda and South Sudan signed a trade pact aimed at cutting delays and costs. Officials also proposed better roads, power links and a one-stop border post to support trade. Energy Business: Kenya Pipeline Company reported a 13% rise in annual profit and plans a Sh35 billion Mombasa oil and gas trading hub. Uganda’s national oil company is among shareholders and is due a share of the planned Sh5.9 billion dividend. Charcoal Trade: Parliament suspended enforcement of the charcoal ban pending a government review, after traders said billions of shillings in stock were stranded and households faced limited affordable cooking alternatives.

Monetary Policy: The Bank of Uganda raised its benchmark rate by 2.25 percentage points to 12% as the shilling weakened and inflation risks grew. The move briefly lifted the currency but is likely to make borrowing costlier for businesses and households. Investment: Uganda is courting Italian and Thai investors for agro-processing, manufacturing and technology, while offering Thai investors 10-year tax holidays. Oil and Finance: Uganda’s oil company says first production is targeted for June 2027, with the East African Crude Oil Pipeline 92% complete. Uganda also ranked fourth in Africa’s 2026 financial markets index. Regional Business: Uganda expects a KSh1.17 billion dividend from Kenya Pipeline Company, which reported higher profits and plans further infrastructure investment.

Currency & Banking: Bank of Uganda’s foreign reserves rose to $6.7 billion in the year to June, from $4.3 billion a year earlier. But the shilling’s recent slide and rising fuel prices are keeping pressure on businesses and households; NCBA is waiving fees on selected digital transactions through December. Manufacturing: As Nile Breweries marks 75 years, it says it sources more than 98% of its raw materials locally, works with about 25,000 farmers and spends Shs156 billion a year on local procurement. Investment: Uganda is courting Thai investors in agro-processing, manufacturing, mining, oil and gas, and tourism, as officials seek foreign capital and stronger trade ties. Infrastructure: An Auditor General’s review found Kampala’s railway goods shed dilapidated and underused, leaving the government missing out on potential cargo and storage revenue. Enterprise: Uganda’s social enterprise sector plans to seek investment and market access at a November summit, where organisers propose launching a $1 million fund.

Currency and Costs: The shilling hit a record low of 4,240/4,250 per dollar on Tuesday before recovering to 4,120/4,130 after the Bank of Uganda called an emergency policy meeting. Petrol is selling for about Sh6,850–6,900 a litre and diesel for Sh6,900–7,180. Investment Push: Uganda has invited Thai investors into agro-processing, manufacturing, tourism, mining and energy, with officials highlighting incentives and simplified business registration. Mineral Value Addition: Cabinet plans to boost lithium mining to support local battery production for solar irrigation, aiming to cut pumping costs for farmers. Export Earnings: Gold has cemented its place as Uganda’s leading export; monthly shipments rose to $788.45 million in July 2026, from $239.41 million three years earlier. Infrastructure: Government will advance Sh175 billion to speed up work on the Hoima–Busunju road, including Sh65 billion for Kafu Bridge, with completion targeted for February 2027.

Tourism Investment: Uganda is targeting the lucrative weddings and events market, with a Kampala conference pitching wildlife, hotels and cultural attractions to international planners and investors. Fuel Costs: Global diesel shortages, shilling weakness and taxes are pushing pump prices to Shs6,800–7,000 a litre; the government says supply is adequate but has limited control over prices. Farm Resilience: Unreliable rains are renewing calls for solar irrigation, but affordability and access to water could limit uptake. ACODE is also urging dedicated budget funding for productive solar use in agriculture. Export Growth: Denmark has provided US$300,000 to help Ugandan horticulture exporters cut logistics costs, improve standards and test cheaper sea freight for avocados and other produce. Regional Trade: A Busia dialogue is seeking to ease barriers to Kenya–Uganda trade in agroecological produce. Market Watch: Bank of Baroda Uganda shares gained 1.9% to Shs99.70, while Stanbic Holdings had the session’s highest turnover.

Regional Tourism: Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania are developing a joint visa for AFCON 2027 fans, aiming to boost cross-border travel and business for hotels, tour operators and transport firms. Road Projects: A bitumen shortage is delaying road surfacing across Uganda, putting major highway and Kampala projects at risk despite Shs8.79 trillion allocated to transport infrastructure for 2026/27. Agricultural Exports: Denmark has granted US$300,000 to help Ugandan horticulture exporters cut logistics costs, improve compliance and test sea freight for avocados and other produce. Trade Links: Uganda’s national chamber and Oman’s chamber signed an MoU to promote trade missions, investment and partnerships in agriculture, agro-processing, tourism, mining and technology. Currency Pressures: The shilling has weakened beyond Shs4,000 per dollar, raising fuel and import costs; debate continues over global shocks and domestic policy as drivers. Regional Infrastructure: Dar es Salaam Port’s improved performance and expansion could lower trade costs and open investment opportunities for Uganda and other landlocked markets.

Energy Investment: Jinguan Electric shares surged after its unit signed a framework deal worth up to $296 million to build 50 solar-storage and charging stations across Africa. Spiro, the partner, operates in Uganda and six other African countries. Mining Revenue: Uganda’s latest extractive-sector report shows a Shs11.7 trillion mismatch in mineral export figures, alongside conflicting gold trade records, raising questions about revenue tracking and oversight. Currency Pressure: The shilling has weakened past Shs4,100 to the dollar, pushing diesel above Shs7,100 a litre. Import costs and demand for dollars are adding pressure as the central bank stays out of the market. New Investment: Nigerian investors are assessing opportunities in Uganda in cement, pharmaceuticals, fish processing, beef and palm oil, as the two countries advance plans for a trade framework. Rural Livelihoods: A Rwenzori programme involving more than 31,000 smallholder farmers combines tree-growing and carbon credits with income diversification; some farmers are also processing coffee to sell higher-value parchment.

Currency and Fuel: The shilling has weakened past Shs4,100 to the dollar, while diesel has topped Shs7,100 a litre. Analysts cite energy import costs, seasonal demand for dollars and offshore investors pulling back; the Bank of Uganda has signalled it will not intervene directly. Investment: Nigerian investors are scouting opportunities in cement, pharmaceuticals, fish processing, beef and palm oil, as Uganda and Nigeria work on a bilateral trade framework. Development Finance: Finance Minister Henry Musasizi wants Uganda Development Bank to speed up loan processing, which can take 45 days, and increase support for manufacturers as its capitalisation reaches Shs2 trillion. Regional Trade: Uganda and South Sudan are seeking to grow bilateral trade beyond $800 million, while Juba develops a cargo hub in Kenya to ease freight flows. Capital Markets: Ugandan investors can participate in Dangote Refinery’s East African share offer, which has been cleared by Uganda’s Capital Markets Authority.

Trade: Uganda’s merchandise exports rose 35% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, among the fastest gains for least-developed-country traders, while imports climbed 26%, WTO estimates show. Gold drove export growth. Regional Markets: Uganda and South Sudan are looking to deepen trade already worth up to $800 million a year by easing barriers and expanding investment. Household Finance: NSSF Managing Director Patrick Ayota warns that many retirees risk spending lump-sum benefits before they arrive, urging savers to plan carefully. Fuel and Currency: Petrol in Kampala reached Shs6,700–6,900 a litre as the shilling’s weakness and global disruptions pushed costs higher. Investment: Government is turning to private capital and carbon markets to help meet Uganda’s $28.1 billion climate-finance need by 2030. Uganda has also opened Dangote Refinery’s $1.6 billion share sale to domestic investors.

Fuel Costs: Petrol was selling at Shs6,700–6,900 a litre and diesel at up to Shs7,018 in Kampala on Saturday. UNOC cited global disruption and shilling depreciation, while officials urged motorists to conserve fuel. Currency and Funding: Museveni rejected a proposal to use BoU’s foreign reserves to support the shilling. Currency in circulation rose 12% to Shs10 trillion, as government seeks to overhaul development financing for its $500 billion economy target. Investment: Uganda approved domestic investors’ access to Dangote Refinery’s $1.6 billion share offer, widening local participation in a major regional energy project. Business and Climate: Rising fuel and transport costs are slowing private-sector growth, even as manufacturers showcased products at the Uganda International Trade Fair. Uganda also needs $28.1 billion in climate finance by 2030 and is looking to private capital and carbon markets to help close the gap.

Housing & Investment: Uganda’s housing deficit stands at about 2.48 million units, prompting calls for affordable finance, better urban planning and stronger private-sector involvement. Currency & Fuel: The shilling’s slide and rising fuel costs are squeezing businesses and households; President Museveni has rejected using foreign reserves to defend the currency. Capital Markets: Uganda has cleared local investors to participate in Dangote Refinery’s IPO, opening access to a major regional energy investment. Fintech: MTN MoMo is urging stronger partnerships, interoperable payments and AI to expand financial inclusion and build a more resilient digital economy. Manufacturing: Local producer Movit Africa took top honours at the Uganda International Trade Fair, spotlighting the potential of home-grown brands to compete across African markets.

Digital Finance: MTN MoMo put partnerships, interoperability and AI at the centre of Uganda’s fintech growth agenda. Currency & Costs: Bank of Uganda says cash in circulation rose 12% to Shs10 trillion. The shilling has fallen to around Shs4,100 per US dollar, while President Museveni rejected using foreign reserves to support it. UNOC attributed high fuel prices to global supply disruptions, the weaker shilling and a new Shs200 duty. Investment: Uganda’s Capital Markets Authority cleared local investors to participate in Dangote Refinery’s IPO, extending the East African offer to Ugandans. Manufacturing: Movit Africa won Best Overall Exhibitor at the Uganda International Trade Fair, showcasing the expanding reach of a home-grown manufacturer.